India has now managed to dethrone the U.K. and claim the position of the 5th largest economy in the world. For decades we have been reciting the line ‘India is a developing country’ with an abstract idea that there would be a shift in this status someday.
The recent improvements prove that India is successfully working towards changing this narrative. The nation’s rapid attempt to bridge the gap between being a developing country and becoming a developed one has been significant.
What is the current Indian economic scenario?
More than a decade ago India was the 11th largest economy in the world. But in 2019, India took a commendable leap and overtook the U.K. to become the 5th largest economy. Unfortunately, due to the Covid-19 pandemic situation, India dropped down to the 6th position by 2020. Nevertheless, in the final 3 months of 2021 India once again accomplished a milestone by surpassing the U.K. and reclaiming the position of the 5th largest economy. The other four countries currently ahead of India are the United States, China, Japan, and Germany.
A report from Bloomberg stated the following facts and figures. “On an adjusted basis and using the dollar exchange rate on the last day of the relevant quarter, the size of the Indian economy in ‘nominal’ cash terms in the quarter through March was $854.7 billion. On the same basis, the U.K. was $816 billion.”
Note: The forecasts and calculations by Bloomberg have been based on the IMF (International Monetary Fund) projections.
How did this happen?
India being a fast-growing economy grew at the rate of 13.5% in the first quarter of the current financial year. Although it remained lower than the estimate drawn by RBI, it was still the highest growth rate in comparison to other developing countries.
Meanwhile, the IMF reports further disclosed that the GDP of the U.K. grew just 1% in the second quarter which further reduced to 0.1% following the inflation adjustments. The Bank of England has already raised the interest rates to curb the skyrocketing inflation and has issued warnings that the country is at a risk of facing recession by the end of this year.
What to keep in mind?
The trajectory of India’s present economic situation is in a positive light. But we need to note that India’s population is fundamentally 20 times that of the U.K. as a result of which the GDP per capita income of India is disproportionately lower. U.K. has a GDP per capita income of $47000 whereas India’s is less than $25000
What does the future hold for the Indian economy?
Here are the top three predictions for India
- Indian economy is expected to grow more than 7% by the end of this year.
- India is envisioned to become the 3rd largest economy by 2030.
- By 2028-29 India may turn into a 5 trillion (USD) economy if the GDP grows by 9% for the next 5 years.
- However, Moody’s Investors Service expects India’s GDP to decline from 8.3% to 7.7% in 2022.
- Since the inflation rates did not reduce as much as RBI had targeted, the rising interest rates could slow down the economy.
Speaking in terms of the overall economic situation, India has been progressive and there is a huge potential for the future. Nevertheless, there is a long gradual way to go.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the blog are purely based on our research and personal opinion. Although we do not condone misinformation, we do not intend to be regarded as a source of advice or guarantee. Kindly consult an expert before making any decision based on the insights we have provided.
